The FORD Lounge

[Ray Cecil]

I have a feeling FedUp is going to go down the tubes. Amazon didn't renew the contract with them several months ago and then really ramped up their own delivery service. So here we get lots more Amazon, then UPS or USPS. Fortunately FedUp is way behind.

I work in the material handling industry. I have helped design Fedex and UPS shipping centers and Amazon fullfillment centers. I know people in the industry.

This is whats up. Expect UPS to be out of business in 15 years, completely gone. Amazon made UPS their little biznatch for years delivering most of their stuff. UPS got addicted to their business. Without Amazon, UPS is likely to fail. FEDEx said no thanks to the Amazon crack. Their business model will survive once Amazon completes building their own delivery business. Yes, in case youve been living under a rock, Amazon is selling delivery routes, buying Airplanes, and building fullfillment centers EVERYWHERE. I know because I handle making the installation drawings for their most trusted systems integrator (Honeywell Intelligrated).

The future is Amazon as king in online sales, and king of delivery. Amazon will make UPS look like they didnt have a clue what they were doing. Fedex will still be around delivering items not sold on Amazon.

UPS fails because they grew bloated on Amazon. Once Amazon no longer needs UPS, UPS will have a massive amount of real estate (shipping facilities) being unused. Massive lay offs. The end of the college assistance program. Many jobs will be lost. Pensions? Lol.

[Gary Lewis]

I have a feeling FedUp is going to go down the tubes. Amazon didn't renew the contract with them several months ago and then really ramped up their own delivery service. So here we get lots more Amazon, then UPS or USPS. Fortunately FedUp is way behind.

I work in the material handling industry. I have helped design Fedex and UPS shipping centers and Amazon fullfillment centers. I know people in the industry.

This is whats up. Expect UPS to be out of business in 15 years, completely gone. Amazon made UPS their little biznatch for years delivering most of their stuff. UPS got addicted to their business. Without Amazon, UPS is likely to fail. FEDEx said no thanks to the Amazon crack. Their business model will survive once Amazon completes building their own delivery business. Yes, in case youve been living under a rock, Amazon is selling delivery routes, buying Airplanes, and building fullfillment centers EVERYWHERE. I know because I handle making the installation drawings for their most trusted systems integrator (Honeywell Intelligrated).

The future is Amazon as king in online sales, and king of delivery. Amazon will make UPS look like they didnt have a clue what they were doing. Fedex will still be around delivering items not sold on Amazon.

UPS fails because they grew bloated on Amazon. Once Amazon no longer needs UPS, UPS will have a massive amount of real estate (shipping facilities) being unused. Massive lay offs. The end of the college assistance program. Many jobs will be lost. Pensions? Lol.

That's exactly the opposite of what I expected. But I can see it happening as Amazon does use UPS quite a bit. But Amazon is going to dominate delivery soon, so UPS will soon lose that business.

[ArdWrknTrk]

That's exactly the opposite of what I expected. But I can see it happening as Amazon does use UPS quite a bit. But Amazon is going to dominate delivery soon, so UPS will soon lose that business.

If you have the capital and the will to vertically integrate nothing but antitrust laws can get in your way.

Amazon 'encourages' marketplace sellers to use their fulfillment hubs.

They get all the specs and sales data for those products without risking a penny on unwanted inventory.

Then they approach the same factory in China and offer to buy that product, branded as "Amazon Basics".

They don't have to own the manufacturing facility. They just position themselves a the one who buys all the production.

The retailer's source dries up and they either find another factory or drop the product.

The first factory is now wholely dependant on Amazon.

This is absolutely the story of Ford, and it's adoption of assembly from ore... to out the door, like at Rouge.

If they wanted to source something like a generator they would have that company as their servant or they would buy in and make it theirs like LOF.

 

[Ray Cecil]

If you have the capital and the will to vertically integrate nothing but antitrust laws can get in your way.

Amazon 'encourages' marketplace sellers to use their fulfillment hubs.

They get all the specs and sales data for those products without risking a penny on unwanted inventory.

Then they approach the same factory in China and offer to buy that product, branded as "Amazon Basics".

They don't have to own the manufacturing facility. They just position themselves a the one who buys all the production.

The retailer's source dries up and they either find another factory or drop the product.

The first factory is now wholely dependant on Amazon.

This is absolutely the story of Ford, and it's adoption of assembly from ore... to out the door, like at Rouge.

If they wanted to source something like a generator they would have that company as their servant or they would buy in and make it theirs like LOF.

That is correct Jim.

The Amazon leadership knows exactly what they are doing. Its a MONSTER. Play their game or get out of the way.

Im capitalizing on it as much as possible. Since entering material handling 3.5 years ago, Ive made an additional $30,000 a year, and I attribute all of that to the Amazon monster business model.

[ArdWrknTrk]

That is correct Jim.

The Amazon leadership knows exactly what they are doing. Its a MONSTER. Play their game or get out of the way.

Im capitalizing on it as much as possible. Since entering material handling 3.5 years ago, Ive made an additional $30,000 a year, and I attribute all of that to the Amazon monster business model.

Bezos went from bookseller to bazillionare in 25 years by creating online sales as we know it.

If it weren't him it would have been someone else, but he was the first to really figure it out.

Will he be a trillionare in a few years?

Look at Jack Ma.

He is staking his share but will always be walking in the footsteps of Jeff Bezos..

[Rembrant]

Look at Jack Ma.

He is staking his share but will always be walking in the footsteps of Jeff Bezos..

Jim, you just reminded me of that Chris Rock bit where he talks about the difference between being rich and being wealthy. He said that Oprah was rich, but Bill Gates was wealthy. He said if Bill Gates woke up tomorrow with Oprah's money he'd jump out of a skyscraper window...lol. (This was back when Jeff Bezos wasn't known for his wealth like Bill Gates was).

Interesting reading you guys talk about UPS and Amazon. I've watched that action play out in much smaller scale around here. Pretty common practice. Big company buys from smaller company, and eventually becomes their biggest customer...the kind you can't live without. Then, big company offers to buy them...or choke them out. Most of the time, if they are aggressive enough, they don't even have to buy the company...they just take over their product line. In fact, one of the big companies I deal with just tried to do it to the company I work for...they went straight to the manufacturer and tried to take our products from us. There were some conflicts of interest, so it was dismissed, but they'll try again after a while.

 

[ArdWrknTrk]

Look at Jack Ma.

He is staking his share but will always be walking in the footsteps of Jeff Bezos..

Jim, you just reminded me of that Chris Rock bit where he talks about the difference between being rich and being wealthy. He said that Oprah was rich, but Bill Gates was wealthy. He said if Bill Gates woke up tomorrow with Oprah's money he'd jump out of a skyscraper window...lol. (This was back when Jeff Bezos wasn't known for his wealth like Bill Gates was).

Interesting reading you guys talk about UPS and Amazon. I've watched that action play out in much smaller scale around here. Pretty common practice. Big company buys from smaller company, and eventually becomes their biggest customer...the kind you can't live without. Then, big company offers to buy them...or choke them out. Most of the time, if they are aggressive enough, they don't even have to buy the company...they just take over their product line. In fact, one of the big companies I deal with just tried to do it to the company I work for...they went straight to the manufacturer and tried to take our products from us. There were some conflicts of interest, so it was dismissed, but they'll try again after a while.

BangGood is not nearly as well known or entrenched here in North America as it is in Asia and Oceania.

But Ma has more than half the world's population in his realm.

Consumers who's economies are rapidly rising.

A generation of Chinese and Indian citizens who recognize his brand.

He is an incredibly smart man whose rags to riches story is more meteoric than Gates or Bezos.

A keen observer, he has the advantage of learning from their missteps.

UPS is a logistics company.

Amazon is a logistics company, a web server company, a retail/food company, a healthcare company and a manufacturer.

If they got into the energy sector and finance+insurance they would be a total monopoly instead of just the Titan they are today.

I don't think it's far off, as many AWS facilities already have generation capabilities to keep costs low and under their control.

Health insurance is pretty much a given now that Amazon has an interest in health care and pharmaceuticals.

I'm sure Amazon has already run the numbers now that they have the data from that sector.

[Ray Cecil]

BangGood is not nearly as well known or entrenched here in North America as it is in Asia and Oceania.

But Ma has more than half the world's population in his realm.

Consumers who's economies are rapidly rising.

A generation of Chinese and Indian citizens who recognize his brand.

He is an incredibly smart man whose rags to riches story is more meteoric than Gates or Bezos.

A keen observer, he has the advantage of learning from their missteps.

UPS is a logistics company.

Amazon is a logistics company, a web server company, a retail/food company, a healthcare company and a manufacturer.

If they got into the energy sector and finance+insurance they would be a total monopoly instead of just the Titan they are today.

I don't think it's far off, as many AWS facilities already have generation capabilities to keep costs low and under their control.

Health insurance is pretty much a given now that Amazon has an interest in health care and pharmaceuticals.

I'm sure Amazon has already run the numbers now that they have the data from that sector.

Jim, we are doing pharma conveyance for humana and other pharmacies. Amazon wont be far behind. Whispers in my industry already prove they have their people putting together the plans.

[85lebaront2]

I have a feeling FedUp is going to go down the tubes. Amazon didn't renew the contract with them several months ago and then really ramped up their own delivery service. So here we get lots more Amazon, then UPS or USPS. Fortunately FedUp is way behind.

Bill - Sorry you are having these problems.

Problem here is Amazon does not do deliveries in this area, and probably never will as we are Virginia's Appendix. No land connection to the rest of Virginia.

[ArdWrknTrk]

Jim, we are doing pharma conveyance for humana and other pharmacies. Amazon wont be far behind. Whispers in my industry already prove they have their people putting together the plans.

Becoming a juggernaut that no one can stop and few will have the stupidity or cajones to challenge.

Amazon is insinuating themselves (lol! corporate personhood) into every aspect of our lives.

And many, MANY of us are smoking from that crack pipe, Ray.

They have profiles on millions and millions of Americans.

Buying habits, home and business addresses, IP addresses too!, a good idea of disposable income, what we eat, what drugs we take (and by extension what health problems we likely have) they know what we read, watch and listen to, they have our personal photographs and obviously facial and product recognition algorithms.

Our internet use is routed through their server farms.

I'm not saying this is malevolent or benevolent, just that it IS.

It's not some dystopian fantasy, it is here and now.